By Ece Yildirim
Publication Date: 2026-02-23 23:25:00
On Sunday, analytics firm Citrini Research published a thought experiment on Substack that reads like fiction.
Entitled “The Global Intelligence Crisis of 2028,” it is a scenario from June of that year in which unemployment in the U.S. rose to 10.2% due to AI-driven mass white-collar unemployment, beginning with a “first wave of layoffs” in early 2026.
GDP growth is still great and productivity is booming in this hypothetical scenario, with AI agents creating “ghost GDP,” that is, “output that shows up in national accounts but never circulates in the real economy.” In this dystopia, consumer spending has declined tremendously as a negative feedback loop has formed.
“AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, employee layoffs increased, laid-off workers spent less, margin pressure pushed companies to invest more in AI, AI capabilities improved,” the essay predicts.
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