Amazon and Google are winning the AI capex race — but what’s the prize?

Sometimes, it can seem like the AI industry is racing to see who can spend the most money on data centers. Whoever builds the most data centers will have the most compute, the thinking goes, and thus be able to build the best AI products, which will guarantee victory in the years to come. There are limits to this way of thinking — traditionally, businesses eventually succeed by making more money and spending less — but it’s proven remarkably persuasive for large tech companies.

If that is the game, Amazon does seem to be winning.

The company announced in its earnings on Thursday that it projects $200 billion in capital expenditures throughout 2026, across “AI, chips, robotics, and low…