By Trefis Team
Publication Date: 2026-09-27 06:08:00
NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has returned 32% over the past six months, well ahead of the S&P 500. That run began near the bottom of its worst fall of the past year. In August 2026, management said rising memory costs will cut NVIDIA’s gross margin, the share of sales kept after production costs. At $303 billion of sales over the past year, each margin point is worth about $3 billion. The table shows what could stall that run over the next six months and when each event lands.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Vera Rubin, NVIDIA’s newest data center system, ramps up in volume | fiscal Q3 2027 | In its favour |
| Supply shortage limits how much NVIDIA can ship | now, and at least through the end of fiscal 2028 | Against the stock |
| NVIDIA reports fiscal Q3 2027 results | November 17, 2026 | Either way |
| Gross margin reaches its low as memory costs rise | fiscal Q4 2027 | Against the stock |
| NVIDIA’s price increases take effect | fiscal Q1 2028 | In its favour |
NVIDIA’s Fiscal Q3 Report Lands On November 17
NVIDIA reports its fiscal Q3 2027 results after the market closes on November 17, 2026. Management has guided revenue to $108 billion, plus or minus 2%.
The company began production shipments of Vera Rubin, its newest data center system, in August 2026. Management expects Vera Rubin to bring in about 20% of data center revenue in fiscal Q3 2027. On November 17, watch whether revenue clears the low end of that guide, about $106 billion. The same report will show…
