This Will Be Microsoft’s Stock Price in 2028

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) is having one of its strangest years in recent memory. The AI franchise is exploding, with CEO Satya Nadella telling investors “Our AI business surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $37 billion, up 123% year-over-year.”

Yet shares trade at $421.06, down 12.74% year to date. Intelligent Cloud just reported $34.681 billion, up 30%, and Azure grew 40%. Can Microsoft shares reach $625 by 2028? The path exists, and the math is more reasonable than the share price suggests.

The Real Reason Microsoft Is Down 12.7% This Year

The issue is the bill. Capital expenditures hit $30.876 billion in the most recent quarter, up 84.39% year over year, and the market is questioning AI return on capital. OpenAI investment losses widened to $3.1 billion in Q1 FY2026 versus $523 million a year earlier. More Personal Computing was down 1%. Shares are off 7.56% over the past year…