The Surprising Dow Stock That Has Outperformed Nvidia by 2-to-1

• Caterpillar (CAT) delivered record full-year sales of $67.6B in 2025 with full-year adjusted EPS of $19.06, beating Q4 estimates of $4.70, while ending the year with a record $51.2B order backlog and $11.7B in operating cash flow. Nvidia (NVDA) rose 50% over the past year, while Caterpillar rose 104%, outpacing the broader manufacturing-construction and mining industry by 104.2%. Deere (DE) posted inferior returns and lower return on equity at 21.97% compared to Caterpillar’s 47.16%, while Komatsu saw weaker performance.

• Caterpillar’s outperformance stems from tangible demand for power generation equipment and heavy machinery needed for AI data center buildouts, mining operations for copper wiring, and infrastructure projects, supported by pricing power and a record backlog providing visibility into 2026, though tariff costs of $2.6B could compress margins and the stock trades at a premium 36.2x trailing P/E versus its five-year average of 19x.

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While Wall Street fixated on artificial intelligence chips and soaring tech valuations, one blue-chip Dow name delivered returns that left Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) in the dust. Over the past year, Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) shares have risen 104%, more than double Nvidia’s 50% gain. That outperformance came not from flashy semiconductors, but from yellow machines moving…