The Risk Factors to Watch Out for in Oracle Stock | Trefis

Oracle (ORCL) has already stumbled once. The company’s stock has plunged more than 30% twice in less than two months in recent years, wiping out billions in market value and wiping out massive gains in a single correction. If history is any guide, ORCL stock is not immune to sudden, sharp declines.

Specifically, we see these risks:

1. Explosion in unfunded AI capital spending
2. Securities fraud lawsuit and management credibility crisis
3. Slowing sales growth and margin implosion

Risk 1: Explosion of unfunded AI capital spending

• Details: Negative free cash flow of more than $10 billion in a single quarter, possible credit downgrade due to rising debt
• Affected segment: Cloud infrastructure (IaaS)
• Possible schedule: Immediately by Q2 2026
• Proof: Forecast capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 increased to $50 billion, an increase of $15 billion from the September 2025 forecast (December 2025…)