By Trefis Team
Publication Date: 2026-05-18 13:48:00
A laptop keyboard and Nvidia logo displayed on a phone screen are seen in this multiple exposure illustration photo taken in Poland on May 17, 2026. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
NurPhoto via Getty Images
There is a consensus indicating that Nvidia (NVDA) is expected to experience a revenue increase of approximately 70% this year and more than 30% the following year. The demand is genuine, and the capital expenditures associated with it are confirmed. However, the infrastructure risk that exists between this demand and actual revenue realization is not adequately accounted for. The power grid poses the main limitation, already impacting deployment timelines in 2026.
The Grid Is the Bottleneck
The main constraint in AI infrastructure has transitioned from semiconductor availability to electricity, particularly the duration required to connect substantial facilities to the grid. Constructing a large-scale AI data center can take between 12 to 24 months. Obtaining high-capacity grid connections in significant U.S. markets may require 36 to 84 months. Currently, the interconnection queue in the U.S. surpasses 2,600 GW. Out of the 12 GW of U.S. AI data center capacity projected for 2026, merely 5 GW is actively under construction, with some of the remaining capacity substantially delayed. Power availability is regarded as one of the primary factors.
Incorporating these rigid physical supply chain limits into a strict rule-based investing framework allows…
