By Omor Ibne Ehsan
Publication Date: 2026-06-15 13:10:00
Quick Read
NVDA surged 420% from the inflection Maguire maps SpaceX to; RKLB, the closest public launch proxy, has already climbed 320% over the past year.
Maguire’s ‘hold forever’ stance is backed by a 2029 to 2030 revenue model, but he holds at Sequoia’s cost basis while public investors do not.
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Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire went on CNBC last week and said SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX), freshly trading, looks to him “more like Nvidia three years ago” than Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). He also said he plans to hold his shares “forever.” Sequoia is a longtime SpaceX backer, so the incentive to talk his book is obvious. Still, the comparison is worth unpacking because it is a specific claim about where SpaceX sits on the curve, and the curve has a recent, very expensive precedent.
The NVIDIA comparison, and why he rejected the Tesla one
Three years ago, in June 2023, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) traded at a split-adjusted $39.41. The AI thesis was contested, hyperscaler capex was just beginning to inflect, and bears framed the stock as a cyclical chip name riding a temporary GPU shortage. Since then, NVIDIA shares are up 419.89%, the company carries a $4.95 trillion market cap, and Q1 FY27 data center revenue alone hit $75.25 billion, up 92% year over year. CEO Jensen Huang…
