By Vandita Jadeja
Publication Date: 2026-10-09 13:30:00
Nvidia sits at $5.70 trillion today, but a specific calendar date, a single earnings report, and one supply-constrained growth target could determine whether it crosses a threshold no company has ever reached.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) has a path to close above a $10 trillion market capitalization by January 31, 2028, the last day of its fiscal 2028. This morning its market cap is $5.70 trillion, so the stock needs to gain 75.5%.
On 24,147,000,000 shares outstanding, that works out to about $414 per share. An early test comes with the Q3 fiscal 2027 earnings report, expected after the close on November 17, 2026. The company has not confirmed that date yet.
$10 Trillion Takes Only 26x Next Year’s Earnings
The average analyst estimate for fiscal 2028 EPS is $15.6951, drawn from 53 analysts. A $414 share price works out to about 26x that figure. Today the stock trades at about 25x forward earnings, so the target needs NVIDIA to deliver earnings growth.
It needs almost no help from a higher multiple. Estimates are also rising: the fiscal 2028 consensus was $12.7102 90 days ago, and it has since rose 23.5%. Over the past 30 days, analysts made 42 up revisions and zero down ones.
Supply Caps Management’s 70% Growth Guidance
Q2 revenue came in at $96.22 billion, up 105.8% year over year and ahead…
