NVIDIA Wins. America Loses

Quick Read

• The AI chip approvals hand Beijing the one input it cannot manufacture at scale: leading-edge compute that powers frontier models.

• NVIDIA shareholders pocket the windfall while American workers and the national security establishment absorb the cost of eroding the U.S. AI technology lead.

• NVIDIA’s May 20 earnings guidance and whether H200 shipments to China actually clear customs will confirm if the policy reversal is real or Beijing’s stalling tactics hold.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

On the eve of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the United States quietly cleared roughly 10 Chinese firms, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, and JD.com, to buy NVIDIA’s H200 accelerators, with Lenovo and Foxconn approved as distributors. NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) shareholders, sitting on a $5.33 trillion market cap and a stock up 19% in the past month, got exactly what Jensen Huang flew to Beijing to secure. America got something worse than a bad trade. It got a strategic concession dressed up as a commercial win.

The Visible Win: Huang Beats the Hawks

Huang was initially left off the summit invite list. Trump overrode his China-hawk advisors at the last minute to bring him along. That reversal matters more than the guest list suggests. Polymarket traders now assign a 73% implied probability that Trump announces AI export restrictions relief for China by May 22, with the AI-relief market…