By Trefis Team
Publication Date: 2026-11-02 12:49:00
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Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.
Betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House on Tuesday. Nvidia is worth about $4.95 trillion, and almost every rule that touches it was written by the White House, not Congress. That’s the first thing to know. A Democratic House can’t undo an executive decision past a veto. So what can it reach?
| What Washington touches | Where it stands | Can a Democratic House change it? |
|---|---|---|
| Chip sales to China | H200 allowed under license; Washington takes 25% of the sales | Pressure only; a ban needs a law |
| China in Nvidia’s forecast | Zero: the outlook assumes no China data-center revenue | Nothing left to cut |
| Chip tariffs | 25% on some advanced chips, with exemptions for U.S. data centers | Not past a veto |
| Power for data centers | 77% of Americans worry AI will raise power prices | Hearings, and voters in both parties |
China can’t hurt Nvidia’s numbers much more. The power bill can.
Nvidia shipped its first H200 chips to China in the quarter that ended in July. They were less than 1% of its $89 billion in data-center sales. Its forecast for the next quarter, $108 billion, counts no China data-center sales at all. On a normal trading day, Nvidia’s value moves by about $76 billion. One ordinary day is worth more than all of Nvidia’s China data-center sales last quarter.
