Nvidia Stock Is Up 19% in 2026. Time to Sell or Load Up?

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia stock has climbed 19% YTD to $225, a gain that trails a Q2 in which revenue more than doubled YoY to $96B.
• The stock’s P/E has shrunk 25.8% over the past year while EPS grew 59.5%.
• Management guided to ~70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028 and called that figure supply-constrained, while cutting its gross margin outlook to a 71%-72% trough in Q4 as memory costs climb.
• TIKR’s mid-case model values Nvidia stock at $661 by January 2031, implying 194% total return, or 28% annualized.

Nvidia’s earnings outran its share price by a wide margin over the past year. Check whether the market is right to hold back. Track Nvidia stock on TIKR for free →

Why Nvidia Stock Has Gained 19% This Year as Its Revenue Doubled

Nvidia (NVDA) stock closed at $225 on Friday, September 25, up 19% since the start of 2026. That is a respectable gain, and a modest one for a company whose second-quarter revenue more than doubled year over year to $96 billion.

The path there was rough. Nvidia stock bottomed below $170 in late March, then topped $230 in mid-May after first-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.87 beat the $1.76 consensus. It gave much of that back by late July, sliding toward $190, before an August 26 report with adjusted EPS of $2.22 against a $2.10 estimate pushed shares back above $220.

Over the past year, Nvidia’s EPS grew 59.5% while the stock’s price-to-earnings multiple compressed 25.8%….