Microsoft’s AI Spending Didn’t Change—Wall Street’s View of It Did

Microsoft NASDAQ: MSFT investors have owned two different companies in 2026. Or at least, they’ve been told two very different stories about the same one.

In the first half of the year, the story was fear. AI would disrupt software. Copilot was an expensive add-on nobody would pay for. Data center spending looked out of control. Not surprisingly, by late June, MSFT had sunk to roughly $355.

But in the second half, the story is about discipline. Microsoft shares rose more than 36% in the last three months and turned positive for the year. It’s a remarkable comeback for a stock that had fallen 20%.

The reason why may come as a surprise. The same capital spending that scared…