Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Looks Reasonable Despite Its 75% Five Year Run

Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Looks Reasonable Despite Its 75% Five Year Run

By Bailey Pemberton
Publication Date: 2026-09-21 21:11:00

Microsoft closed at US$493.78 after a strong multi year run, and with the stock dipping over the past week, the real question for investors is whether that price still lines up with the cash flows the business can generate.

  • Over the past 5 years Microsoft has delivered a 74.9% gain, which puts a lot of long term expectation into the current valuation story.

  • Heavy investment in artificial intelligence partnerships and infrastructure, including deep ties to OpenAI and large data center commitments, can support future cash generation but also increases the cash outlay and risk profile that needs to be reflected in any valuation work.

  • If you’d rather focus on earnings, this one’s for you. See why Microsoft’s 27.4x P/E tells a different valuation story.

The issue now is whether Microsoft’s current share price is justified by the intrinsic value suggested by its cash flows under a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) lens.

For a broader…