By Trefis Team
Publication Date: 2026-09-24 19:50:00
International Business Machines (IBM) stock fell 12% over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 gained 16.5%. The easy read is that the bad news is already in the price. By management’s account, its second quarter of 2026 fell short of expectations mostly because tens of large deals slipped, after clients moved budgets toward servers, storage and memory. So how much could IBM still make you over three years, and what has to go right?
Where Would IBM’s Gain Come From?
Revenue carries all of it. The scenario grows sales 9.9% a year for three years, from $69.1 billion to $91.7 billion. It is a projection built from IBM’s own trailing numbers, not a forecast. And, that is a little faster than the 7.9% of the past twelve months.
Software is nearly 45% of revenue, and about 80% of it is recurring subscription and consumption sales from products like Red Hat, HashiCorp and Confluent. Annual recurring revenue was up 8%…
