Impact of AI on the labor market: A new measure and initial findings

Key findings

• We are introducing a new measure of AI displacement risk, observed exposurethat combines theoretical LLM capability and real-world usage data, with greater weight given to automated (rather than supplementary) and work-related usage
• AI is far from reaching its theoretical capabilities: actual coverage remains only a fraction of what is feasible
• The BLS predicts that occupations with higher observed exposure will experience less growth through 2034
• Workers in the most vulnerable occupations are more likely to be older, female, more educated and better paid
• We do not find a systematic increase in unemployment among highly exposed workers since the end of 2022, although we find evidence that hiring of younger workers in exposed occupations has slowed

introduction

The rapid spread of AI is sparking a wave of research measuring and predicting its impact on labor markets. But the track record of past approaches gives cause for humility.

For example, a prominent attempt to measure the offshoring capability of jobs was identified…