By Daniel Sparks
Publication Date: 2026-10-14 23:51:00
Shares of Nvidia (NVDA -3.16%) hit another record on Tuesday, Oct. 6, closing at $239.24. If history’s any guide, the October-to-December quarter has usually been a good one for the artificial intelligence (AI) chip giant’s stock.
Measured from the end of September to the end of December, Nvidia‘s shares rose in 20 of the 27 years from 1999 through 2025. The median change for all 27 fourth quarters was a gain of around 14%.
But the record comes with two caveats. Nvidia’s stock has climbed in most quarters during this stretch, not just the last one of the year. From 2000 through 2025, for example, it also gained in 20 of 26 first quarters.
And two of the seven fourth quarters that went wrong cost shareholders over half their money.
I think the calendar matters much less here than the report Nvidia puts out in the middle of it.
Jensen Huang. Image source: Nvidia.
A report in the middle
Nvidia’s fiscal year ends in late January, so its fiscal third quarter closes in late October. The report for that period tends to come in mid-to-late November, about halfway through the calendar fourth quarter.
That report also gives management’s revenue outlook for the fiscal fourth quarter, which runs roughly from November through January.
Sure, even a great report doesn’t promise a good quarter. Nvidia’s fiscal third-quarter 2026 results, released Nov. 19, 2025, showed revenue up 62% year over year to $57.0 billion. Management also guided for $65.0 billion in the next quarter.
The stock…
