History Says Nvidia Is Going to Disappoint Wall Street After Aug. 26

History Says Nvidia Is Going to Disappoint Wall Street After Aug. 26

By Sean Williams, The Motley Fool
Publication Date: 2026-08-18 11:26:00

Although the bulk of earnings season is now in the rearview mirror, arguably the most consequential report is yet to come.

After the closing bell on Aug. 26, the face of the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), will lift the hood on its latest quarterly operating results. As has been customary for much of the last four years, Nvidia is expected to blow past Wall Street’s consensus sales and profit forecasts. But if history rhymes, once again, it won’t be enough to drive the company’s lofty valuation higher.

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Image source: Nvidia.

Nvidia has made a habit of crushing analysts’ estimates

Based on current estimates, Nvidia is expected to deliver nearly $91.9 billion in fiscal second-quarter sales (up 96% from the year-ago quarter) and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.08. With an average EPS beat of $0.065 over the last four quarters, Nvidia is hurdling profit expectations by roughly $1.5 billion per quarter.

There’s no secret to Nvidia’s formula for success. The company’s graphics processing units (GPUs) are superior, and Wall Street’s most influential businesses have shown a willingness to pay a premium for the…