By Lee Samaha
Publication Date: 2026-03-03 12:00:00
oracle (ORCL +2.65%) fell 11.7% in March, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. As I write this, the stock is down more than 23% in 2026. However, the most important deadline may be mid-September, when news of the $300 billion deal with OpenAI broke. The initial euphoria over the deal quickly faded, and Oracle shares have fallen more than 54% since mid-September.
Image source: Getty Images.
OpenAI and Oracle
The chart below shows Oracle’s decline, and it’s no coincidence that Microsoft (whose Azure cloud computing business accounts for 45% of its backlog in OpenAI) is also significantly underperforming, while Alphabet (with minimal OpenAI exposure) is the best-performing hyperscaler.
Furthermore, it’s not just investors in the stock market who are uncomfortable with Oracle’s involvement in the loss-making and cash-burning OpenAI Bond investors are under pressured Oracle’s 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread pricing to about 120 basis points to 150…
