By https://www.theguardian.com/profile/graemewearden
Publication Date: 2026-04-27 06:13:00
Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecast as war disruptions hit production
The stalemate in the Middle East conflict has prompted Goldman Sachs to raise its oil price forecast.
Goldman Sachs Brent crude oil is estimated to trade at around $90 a barrel in the final quarter of this year, down from a previous forecast of $80. U.S. crude oil is forecast to average $83 in October-December, up from $75 previously.
Goldman blames “lower production in the Persian Gulf” for the modernization and tells customers:
We now expect golf exports to normalize by the end of June (compared to mid-May previously) and a slower recovery in golf production. The economic risks are greater than our crude oil base case alone suggests due to the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, the threat of product shortages and the unprecedented magnitude of the shock.
Goldman’s Analysts estimate that 14.5 million barrels per day of crude oil production have been lost in the Persian Gulf, leading to a record decline in global oil…