EXCLUSIVE: If AI Capex Cracks, Nvidia Could Feel It Before Meta Does

The next crack in the AI trade may show up in spending before it appears in revenue. Sam Rines, Macro Strategist at WisdomTree, says a slowdown in hyperscaler capital spending would likely hit semiconductors and infrastructure providers hardest, while companies using AI to improve existing businesses could prove more resilient — putting Nvidia Corp NVDA and Meta Platforms, Inc. META on different sides of the cycle.

AI Spending Faces a New Test

Nvidia has been one of the clearest financial beneficiaries of the AI boom, supplying the chips that power the massive infrastructure buildout. But the market is increasingly asking a different question: How much longer can hyperscalers keep spending at extraordinary levels before investors demand clearer returns?

Rines says that test is already underway.

“Capex is tolerated for companies that can show the returns to it, but it is not appreciated for companies without the ability to clearly articulate the returns,” he told Benzinga in an exclusive email interview.

That creates an important distinction between companies building AI infrastructure and those using AI inside established businesses.

Microsoft Corp MSFT is seeing its cloud business benefit from AI, while Alphabet Inc GOOGGOOGL is beginning to see Gemini contribute to revenue and improve YouTube advertising, according to Rines. Meta, meanwhile, is using AI to strengthen its core advertising business while expanding its AI product lineup.

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