Could Nvidia shares make me a fortune in 2026, or lose me one?

Two techie things have been pulling on my thoughts in 2025 — the apparently unstoppable rise of Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares, and talk of an AI bubble waiting to burst.

Nvidia just got a boost from plans to start exporting its second-most powerful AI chips to Chinese clients by mid-February, reported Reuters. It follows President Trump’s move to allow exports of H200 processors, for a 25% government fee.

That helped get Nvidia shares moving up again after dipping from their all-time high in October. Even down a bit since then, we’re still looking at a stunning five-year gain of more than 1,200%.

Competition

In the longer term, will the deal hold up? I can see a chance a future US administration might re-adopt Biden-era policies of restricting high-tech exports to China. And what about Chinese AI developers? Do they want to be reliant on US supplies? Industry leaders, including search giant Baidu, have already revealed plans for advanced AI processor launches in 2026 and 2027.

So that’s one of the cautions I see surrounding Nvidia as an investment. Yes, it’s an early mover in migrating graphics processors over to AI demand, which their architecture suits well. But the early movers don’t always hold the market in the longer term. Other US chipmakers, like AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm, must be considered threats. And then we have Alphabet‘s Google and Amazon Web Services among those also developing their…