At a top AI conference, 300 attendees were asked which startup they would short.

In a city obsessed with betting on the next big thing, the Cerebral Valley AI Conference turned that instinct inward. Before panels featuring AI heavyweights like Anthropic and xAI wrapped up on Wednesday, founders and investors in the audience were asked a question that Silicon Valley rarely says out loud: Which billion-dollar AI startup would you bet against?

The crowd’s verdict? Search startup Perplexity topped the list of companies most likely to fall, followed by OpenAI — a surprising second place for the poster child of the AI boom.

The informal survey, conducted by organizer and independent journalist Eric Newcomer, of more than 300 attendees, underscored what many insiders are whispering: that even as AI money floods the Valley, confidence in its biggest players is starting to crack.

Any unscientific, anonymous survey should be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism. Still, it was revealing because while plenty of VCs and founders at this conference and elsewhere talk about an AI bubble, they are usually too…