Hi everyone,
In this article, I’m breaking down my current thinking on Amazon. My goal here is to explain in detail the changes caused by AI on three pillars of the business: E-Commerce, AWS, and Advertising, and specifically how valuable each looks like in a world where AI agents increasingly sit between humans and the services they use. At the end, I’ll do a sum-of-parts valuation that I think gives a useful anchor for where the stock sits today.
Let’s start.
E-Commerce – the agentic threat and the logistics moat
Amazon captures roughly 40% of all U.S. e-commerce spending. It has 240+ million Prime subscribers globally (analyst estimates; Amazon last officially disclosed “over 200 million” in 2021), of which approximately 180–185 million are in the United States, representing penetration in about 80% of U.S. households. The Prime flywheel is well-documented: members spend on average $1,400/year, compared with $600 for non-Prime customers, and the retention rate after the…
https://www.uncoveralpha.com/p/amazons-value-in-the-age-of-ai-agents
