AI and work: An expert estimates how far this revolution still has to go

Every week there are new claims that AI is transforming the workplace. A CEO calls for a revolution. One think piece predicts that millions of jobs will disappear overnight. The noise is relentless.

But putting the hype aside, a simpler question arises. What has AI actually changed about work in developed economies so far? The answer turns out to be more interesting and inconsistent than either side suggests.

What is real?

Let’s start with what the evidence shows. AI is delivering real productivity gains for certain types of knowledge-based work and service work. An experimental study found that professionals who used ChatGPT to write assignments took 40% less time to complete them, with an 18% improvement in quality (as rated by their colleagues in blind tests).

And another study of more than 5,000 customer service agents found a 15% increase in issues resolved per hour. An industry experiment involving realistic, complex tasks conducted with management consultants found that they…