2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership

2028: Two scenarios for global AI leadership

By @AnthropicAI
Publication Date: 2026-05-14 12:00:00

We are publishing a new paper outlining our views on US-China competition in AI.

It is important that the United States and its allies stay ahead of authoritarian governments like the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). AI will soon be powerful enough to oppress citizens on an unprecedented scale and even change the balance of power between nations. And as AI advances faster by the day, we only have a limited amount of time to set the terms of competition – and determine if and how these threats materialize. With that in mind, we outline what it will take to ensure America stays ahead.

The most important component for the development of AI is access to the computer chips on which the models are trained (or “calculated”). Since the most powerful chips are developed by American companies, the US government is currently limiting China’s supply by imposing strict export controls on them. Recent history suggests that these controls…