Thinking about an AI bubble

If you listen long enough, you’ll hear conversations about artificial intelligence include references to a “hype cycle” and analysis about the level of enthusiasm CEOs, investors and others are displaying for new technologies that are certainly unprecedented. Some even call it a “bubble,” suggesting that the massive investments currently being made in AI are inappropriate, unfounded and ultimately unsustainable.

But you will also hear other voices suggesting that the party has actually just begun and that the demand for AI will continue to grow in the coming years.

Essentially, people seem to be betting on both sides of the “exponential curve” we see in AI advancement. Observations of trends related to this market show a sort of “hockey stick” projection where what was tiny three or four years ago is now huge. The largest example by market cap is Nvidia, a company that most people weren’t that familiar with…