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The Surprising Reason Nvidia Looks Recession-Proof in 2026

The Surprising Reason Nvidia Looks Recession-Proof in 2026

By Jeremy Bowman
Publication Date: 2026-01-23 17:00:00

Key Points

  • While there are concerns about an AI bubble, most industry-level indicators show that AI spending will accelerate this year.

  • The labor market remains weak and some consumer-facing companies are struggling.

  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang believes AI is at a tipping point.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›

Since the launch of ChatGPT more than three years ago, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has gotten more attention than probably any other stock on the market, and for good reason.

Nvidia is the company that is driving the AI revolution and collecting the most value from the AI boom. The company still dominates the market for data center GPUs, the chips used to make AI models that power applications like ChatGPT work, with more than 90% market share. Thanks to AI, it’s also now the most valuable company in the world at a market cap of $4.5 trillion, and the stock is up roughly 1,000% over the last three years.

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As a semiconductor stock with the vast majority of its business exposed to AI, Nvidia seems like it would be a high-risk stock. After all, it’s been volatile over its history. As the chart below shows, the stock has fallen by more than 50% twice in the last ten years, and even fell by 30% last spring when stocks fell over tariff concerns.

NVDA data by YCharts

However, compared to most of the stock market, Nvidia looks…

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