The “significant shortfall” in copper supplies is widening as the race for AI and rising defense spending contribute to rising demand, according to a new global study from S&P

The supply deficit would reach 10 million tons by 2040 as demand increases by 50%

WASHINGTON, January 8, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — A looming copper supply gap is expected to widen as electricity demand rises and new vectors – such as the race for artificial intelligence and rising defense spending – increase the call for copper. Accordingly Copper in the Age of AI: The Challenges of Electrification, a comprehensive new study According to S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI), the resulting supply deficit poses a “systemic risk to global industry, technological progress and economic growth.”

The study finds that “accelerated electrification” is expected to increase copper demand to 42 million tonnes by 2040, a 50% increase from current levels. However, existing supply is currently expected to decline in the coming years as the mining sector faces challenges across the copper value chain.

The study assumes that global copper production…