If you own Amazon stock, your worry is probably the bill for data centers and AI. On its July 30, 2026 call, management put Amazon’s capital spending for 2026 at about $220 billion. The stock has returned 13.1% over the past twelve months, less than the S&P 500’s 16.0%. Here are the events most likely to move Amazon stock over the next six months, starting with late October’s earnings reports.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| Peers Alphabet and Microsoft report results, a read on demand for AWS | expected on or around October 27, 2026 | Either way |
| Amazon reports third-quarter 2026 results, including AWS growth | expected on or around October 29, 2026 | Either way |
| Amazon’s fourth quarter, when it expects an outsized share of retail sales | the fourth quarter of 2026 | Either way |
| Amazon capital spending for 2026 exceeds $220 billion meaningfully | by the end of 2026 | Against the stock |
| AWS adds capacity for demand it cannot yet serve | through 2026, and management believes… |