By Gary Marcus
Publication Date: 2025-12-26 14:39:00
You must go now and take what you need, what you believe is enough.
But whatever you want to keep, it’s best to grab it quickly.
– Bob Dylan
If the bubble peaked in September 2025, 2026 will likely be the year everything collapses. The clues are everywhere. Here are two I read this morning:
And a longer analysis focusing on debt at The New York Times Timesworth reading in full:
The summary above says:
It’s all over now, baby blue. I don’t know if everything falls apart suddenly or gradually. And LLMs will continue to exist.
But the economics don’t make sense and never will, largely because of the key technical issues I’ve highlighted here and elsewhere since 2019. Without world models. You can’t achieve reliability. And without reliability, profits are limited.
The technical problems are not new. And about a trillion dollars in investments couldn’t fix them.
The new thing is that they have finally found widespread recognition, not just as a temporary…