By Finimize Newsroom
Publication Date: 2026-02-23 16:10:00
rt in Q3 rather than Q1 because talks are still in flux. Even if operations are improving, the bigger swing is valuation – Morgan Stanley lowered its target multiple to about 5x 2027 adjusted EBITDA from about 12x as social-media peer multiples have compressed, while keeping an equalweight rating.
Why should I care?
For markets: Recurring revenue is rising but visibility is what investors pay for.
A growing subscription base can make a platform look less economically sensitive, and Snap’s estimated ~$1 billion run-rate supports that narrative. But analysts and investors also discount uncertainty: pushing expected Perplexity-related revenue from Q1 to Q3 can reshape near-term models, even if the longer-term prize is unchanged. Meanwhile, the multiple reset highlights a sector-wide reality – when peers re-rate lower, even “better-than-expected” execution may not translate into a higher target.
Zooming out: Social media is getting priced like a more mature business.
Lower EBITDA multiples are a signal that markets want steadier profits and cleaner timelines, not just product momentum. Snap is moving that way through subscriptions and more performance-oriented ad formats, but new monetization initiatives still have to land on schedule to earn premium valuations. The direction of travel is clear – durability and predictability are becoming as important as growth.
