By Keithen Drury
Publication Date: 2025-12-31 20:35:00
Alphabet might pass Nvidia if the market conditions are right.
Nvidia is the world’s largest company at about a $4.6 trillion market cap. It has risen to these lofty heights thanks to huge data centers focused on artificial intelligence (AI). Nvidia is projected to have another incredible year in 2026, so knocking it off its perch on top of the world will be no small task.
There are only a few stocks that have a realistic chance to surpass Nvidia, namely Apple, Alphabet (GOOG 0.11%) (GOOGL 0.11%), and Microsoft, which are valued at $4.1 trillion, $3.8 trillion, and $3.6 trillion, respectively. Outside of these, there’s a significant drop in companies’ valuations that would make the gap too big to close in 2026.
So, will any of these three topple the leader?
Image source: Getty Images.
There’s only one true candidate to overtake Nvidia
Of the three, one stands out as a company that probably will not overtake Nvidia: Apple. Although it’s the second-largest company in the world, it doesn’t have the growth potential to drive it past the leader.
NVDA Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth), data by YCharts; YoY = year over year.
Apple has struggled to post anything above 10% growth for the last three years, and there isn’t a catalyst that will suddenly ramp it up in 2026, either. As a result, I think there’s almost no chance Apple can pass Nvidia, unless there is an unforeseen event like a halt in data center construction.
That leaves Alphabet and Microsoft, and of the two, I think…