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Prediction: Nvidia Stock Won’t Soar After Wednesday’s Earnings, Even With a Blowout | The Motley Fool

Prediction: Nvidia Stock Won’t Soar After Wednesday’s Earnings, Even With a Blowout | The Motley Fool

By Daniel Sparks
Publication Date: 2026-05-19 14:47:00

Nvidia (NVDA 0.57%) is set to report its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results (the period ended April 26, 2026) after the closing bell on Wednesday, May 20. And going into the report, the chipmaker’s stock is on a tear. Shares are up about 10% over the past month and roughly 19% so far in 2026, lifting Nvidia’s market capitalization to around $5.4 trillion as of this writing.

In other words, optimism on Wall Street about Nvidia stock has been building heading into Wednesday, with shares closing in on the all-time high they set just last week. Sure, there’s been some volatility, but overall shares are up sharply over the last 30 days.

But despite a long string of beating its own guidance, Nvidia’s stock has actually slipped after three of its last four quarterly reports. The clearest recent example came in February, when the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker delivered fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion — up 73% year over year — and guided fiscal Q1 to about $78 billion. Yet shares still fell about 5.5% the next day and were down close to 11% a month later.

All of this to say, with Nvidia shares trading at about 45 times earnings as of this writing, even another blowout may not be enough to keep the stock soaring after Wednesday.

Let me explain.

Image source: Getty Images.

The business case is strong

In Nvidia’s fiscal fourth quarter (the period ended Jan. 25, 2026), data center revenue grew 75% year over year to $62.3 billion — representing about 91% of…

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