By Keith Speights
Publication Date: 2026-02-18 08:45:00
Nvidia doesn’t have to miss Wall Street’s Q4 estimates for its share price to fall.
Many Nvidia (NVDA +2.09%) investors have probably circled Feb. 25, 2026, on their calendars. That’s the date the giant chipmaker is scheduled to announce its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter results. Nvidia plans to release its results following the market close and hold its quarterly conference call with analysts shortly afterward.
It’s easy to predict that Nvidia’s share price will surge after its Q4 update. The company’s results will almost certainly be fantastic and reflect a booming underlying business. However, I have a contrarian take. I predict that the GPU stock will drop after Feb. 25.
Image source: Nvidia.
A high-expectations problem
The consensus Wall Street Q4 revenue estimate for Nvidia is $65.6 billion, according to S&P Global (SPGI +2.27%). The average Q4 adjusted earnings estimate is $1.52 per share. Both estimates reflect year-over-year growth of roughly 71%.
Does my prediction assume that Nvidia will fail to meet these estimates? Actually, no. Nvidia has an excellent track record of beating Wall Street’s numbers, delivering better-than-expected results in each of the last four quarters. I think the company will do it again.
However, beating analysts’ estimates doesn’t always translate to a subsequent stock gain. Look at the chart below. Each of the “Es” on the chart shows when Nvidia reported earnings. As I just mentioned, the company exceeded expectations in each earnings…
