Oracle’s AI hangover highlights the risk of chasing late-cycle tech winners

Oracle’s AI hangover highlights the risk of chasing late-cycle tech winners

By Douglas A. McIntyre
Publication Date: 2026-01-06 11:20:00

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How did Oracle go from market darling to market disappointment in just a few months? Lee and I agreed that the speed of the turnaround surprised even experienced investors.

From AI royalty to market reality

I remembered how strong Oracle looked earlier this year. The stock skyrocketed, Larry Ellison briefly became the world’s second-richest person, and Oracle took center stage in high-profile AI announcements. For a moment, it seemed as if Oracle had reclaimed its place among the most powerful names in technology.

That trust quickly faded. Oracle’s fiscal third quarter turned out to be its weakest since 2021, and the stock took a hit. Almost all of the gains driven by spring and summer optimism were wiped out.

Balance sheet anxiety

Lee pointed out that a key difference between Oracle and some of its competitors is how AI spending is reported on the balance sheet. Oracle has taken a significant AI and data center commitment outright rather than driving it forward…