Oracle’s AI bet: equity gains and loan wait times

Who really bears the risk?

Oracle burned through $10 billion in cash last quarter (Q2 fiscal 2026, ended November 30, 2025). The stock has cratered, falling more than 40% since its peak in September 2025. Credit spreads have more than doubled in the last three months, rising from around 50 basis points in September to over 130 basis points – the highest since 2009. Why? A massive bet on AI infrastructure and aggressive borrowing to build data centers. Total debt in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026: approximately $108.1 billion, with another $24 billion in lease liabilities already on the balance sheet.

And buried in it its latest quarterly filing: $248 billion in additional lease obligations not yet included on the balance sheet, bringing total debt and lease obligations to nearly $380 billion. These obligations differ from funded debts in form and seniority, but once…