By Luke Yang, CFA
Publication Date: 2026-02-10 00:00:00
Key Morningstar metrics for Oracle
oracle ORCL Shares rose more than 10% on Feb. 9, their biggest one-day gain since last September, after a sell-side competitor issued a more favorable valuation. Despite the rally, Oracle shares are still down 19% year to date, underperforming enterprise software peers like SAP and Microsoft.
Why it matters: We attribute Oracle’s jump to the positive reception of OpenAI’s GPT 5.3 Codex tool and the expanded investment plans of other tech giants. Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta are all increasing their capex by 60-100% in 2026, in line with our 70% forecast for Oracle.
- With an estimated monthly active user base of over 1 billion, ChatGPT’s leadership position in the large language model market is solid. OpenAI is also becoming increasingly important among companies. The company’s API business experienced faster growth than ChatGPT, with a smaller base in 2025.
- Positive usage trends should support our thesis that OpenAIs are worth $300 billion…
