One chilling forecast of our AI future is getting wide attention. How realistic is it?

Let’s imagine for a second that the impressive pace of AI progress over the past few years continues for a few more.

In that time period, we’ve gone from AIs that could produce a few reasonable sentences to AIs that can produce full think tank reports of reasonable quality; from AIs that couldn’t write code to AIs that can write mediocre code on a small code base; from AIs that could produce surreal, absurdist images to AIs that can produce convincing fake short video and audio clips…