Nvidia’s Latest Signal Points to Serious Downside Risk for Micron Before 2029 Is Over | The Motley Fool

Micron Technology (MU -0.22%) has gained more than 500% over the past year and trades at $975 at this writing. When a stock does that, the useful question stops being whether the business is good. It becomes: What would have to change for the story to break, and who gets to decide?

That decision sits with Nvidia (NVDA -0.03%). Most of the discussion centers on a table in Nvidia’s second-quarter commentary, where Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress disclosed that supply commitments jumped from $119 billion to $279 billion, tied to memory buying. That is a large number, and spending drops to almost nothing after fiscal 2029, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Fair enough. But a purchase commitment is a plan, and plans get revised. In other words, Nvidia is betting heavily on future memory demand, but that spending isn’t guaranteed to happen if its plans change.

The Nvidia signal that matters more for Micron

What I find harder to dismiss is what Nvidia is doing with its designs, because design choices lock in years ahead of purchase orders.

Consider the Rubin CPX, a chip built for the first stage of answering an…