By Vandita Jadeja
Publication Date: 2026-05-22 13:56:00
© BenBen Lam via YouTube
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) just posted the largest quarter in semiconductor history. Q1 FY27 revenue came in at $81.61 billion, up 85.2% YoY, with Data Center alone doing $75.25 billion (+92% YoY). Net income hit $58.32 billion.
Yet shares sit at $219.51, well below the analyst average. The market cap is roughly $5.41 trillion. To join the $6 trillion club, NVIDIA needs to reach $250 per share. I think that happens by November 18, 2026, the week of the next earnings report.
Why NVIDIA Shares Are Stuck Despite a Monster Quarter
The disconnect is real. NVIDIA is up 17.71% YTD and 66.59% over the past year, but shares are down 6.88% in five sessions this past week, even after a clean beat.
Part of that is positioning. Beta sits at 2.244, so NVIDIA moves twice as hard as the market in both directions. Part is the China overhang. NVIDIA shipped zero H20 units to China this quarter, and the lost TAM there has weighed on the multiple. Prediction markets price caution. Polymarket gives only an 11% probability of $240 in May. Traders want consolidation, not a melt-up.
Wall Street Sees 27% Upside. I Think They’re Underestimating It
The consensus is loud. 10 Strong Buy, 48 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, with an average target of $278.03. Our internal model lands at $271.16 with 90% confidence, implying 23.53% upside. The scenario range runs from $224.68 bear to $313.98 bull.
Only a handful have moved targets above $300, yet…