Nvidia Stock To $300? | Trefis

Nvidia stock (NVDA) rallied by close to 4% yesterday to roughly $197 per share amid a broader market rally fueled by hopes of de-escalation in the U.S. and Iran conflict. While the stock is up 75% over the last 12 months, investors are asking if a 41x trailing price to earnings multiple is too steep. (See Nvidia’s valuation multiples.)

We believe it is not.

In fact we outline a possibility that Nvidia stock could have an upside of as much as 50% in the coming years. Here is how.

Massive Revenue Growth

To date, Nvidia’s meteoric rise has been driven by massive capital expenditure from hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Google, focused primarily on building and training large language models.

Revenue skyrocketed from $27 billion in FY’23 to almost $216 billion in FY’26. Consensus estimates point to $480 billion in revenue by FY’28, reflecting broader market confidence that the shift from experimental training to large-scale deployment is underway.

If growth holds at approximately 20% into 2029, it would push revenue beyond $575 billion.

We see two major drivers of this next leg of growth. The first is the shift from training to inference. Training is a periodic cost; inference is continuous, recurring demand. As agentic AI increases tokens required per task, compute demand grows exponentially. Critically, companies that built their training infrastructure on…