By Daniel Sparks
Publication Date: 2026-09-30 22:17:00
Nvidia (NVDA +0.52%) closed at around $229 on Monday, Sept. 28, giving the artificial intelligence (AI) chip leader a market cap of about $5.5 trillion. For the stock to trade above $400 five years from now, it would have to rise around 75% from that close, or about 12% a year.
It’s asking a lot of a business already this big. But I think it’s a reachable target, if one assumption holds up.
Image source: Nvidia.
Earnings are still rising fast
Nvidia’s profits are growing even faster than its sales. On a non-GAAP (adjusted) basis, the company earned $2.22 per share in the fiscal second quarter of 2027 (the three months ended July 26, 2026). That was up 120% year over year and up from $1.87 in the fiscal first quarter. The adjusted number strips out gains from Nvidia’s stakes in other companies, which were $7.8 billion before taxes in the quarter. Revenue, meanwhile, climbed 106% year over year to $96.2 billion, accelerating from 85% growth in the fiscal first quarter and 73% in the quarter before.
Management’s guidance for the fiscal third quarter calls for revenue of around $108 billion, up about 12% over the fiscal second quarter.
Plus, Nvidia expects revenue to rise about 70% in fiscal 2028, which ends in late January 2028. And this outlook is capped by how many chips Nvidia can get made, not by demand. “Customers’ forecasts point to our growth doubling next year,” chief financial officer Colette Kress said on Nvidia’s Aug. 26 earnings call.
Of course, margins will lose…
