Nvidia Stock and the AI Monetization Supercycle No One Is Pricing In

Nvidia Stock and the AI Monetization Supercycle No One Is Pricing In

By Beth Kindig
Publication Date: 2025-12-04 00:00:00

Two weeks ago, Nvidia blew the doors off with an earnings report that defies the company’s mega-cap scale. The long-awaited Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra architectures are shipping in volume, leading to 25% QoQ growth in the data center segment and surpassing a $200 billion data center run rate. Despite this, Nvidia’s stock barely budged as the market ignored the magnitude of the QoQ inflection. Consider that Apple, trading at a similar market cap, has not seen 66% YoY growth for fourteen years, and it required a global pandemic for Apple to report 25%+ QoQ growth outside of its holiday quarter.  

When we narrow it down to Nvidia’s last earnings report – let alone subsequent reports – there is truly no comparison going back for a decade or more. However, the market dismissed the results and is instead stuck in a pit of speculative fears – meaning, there is no evidence in the financials, management commentary, industry estimates, or product roadmap (collectively referred to as “data”). Nonetheless, hypothetical risks that are immaterial today have become loud enough to bury an otherwise epic earnings report. 

As I pointed out on Charles Payne’s Making Money, I live for those moments when a company delivers a strong earnings report and yet the market hands me a lower price.  

Underneath the noise of “AI bubble” debates, Google’s TPUs, debt leverage (which is a material issue), China fears (remember the DeepSeek panic?), supply chain constraints,…