Morgan Stanley predicts potential $370M to $1.3B impact from Oracle’s involvement in TikTok ban

Morgan Stanley warned Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) of potential financial risks ranging from $370 million to $1.3 billion due to a law that could ban TikTok in the US if it does not divest from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance (BDNCE). Oracle, a major cloud infrastructure provider for TikTok, could see a hit to its revenue depending on the outcome of the situation. Analysts predict that TikTok’s annual cloud spending on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) could range from $370 million to over $1 billion, with the impact likely to be felt in the second half of fiscal 2025 or in FY26. The uncertainty surrounding TikTok’s future usage patterns also poses a potential challenge to revenue growth in the near and medium term. Despite these concerns, Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-Weight rating on Oracle with a price target of $125.

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