IGI measures impact of cloud computing, 5G, autonomous vehicles on equipment market

Observers agree that cloud computing, the advent of 5G mobile services, and autonomous vehicles (as well as smarter conventional cars) will drive up bandwidth and therefore the demand for networking gear. Information Gatekeepers Inc. (IGI) has issued “New Drivers of Network and Equipment Market: Cloud Computing, 5G, and Autonomous Vehicles with Analysis and Forecasts, 2018 – 2023,” a report in which the market research firm, working with author Clif Holliday of B&C Consulting Services, projects how much impact these catalysts will have on the demand for WDM/ROADM, network switches, and network routers.

IGI and Holliday describe the potential impact of each of the three drivers, then apply their impact estimates on previous demand and revenue forecasts for DWDM/ROADM gear, routers, and switches (particularly from IGI’s 2016 “Network of the Future – with Equipment Forecasts” report). Given the differing maturity level of the three catalysts, it’s not surprising that IGI and Holliday see cloud computing as having the first and largest impact on network equipment demand over the forecast period. Cloud computing is already being used by network managers in a variety of customer segments, and the report predicts that cloud computing will have more impact on hardware demand than 5G and autonomous vehicles combined. 5G will begin to make its presence felt this year, according to the report, while autonomous vehicles won’t begin to influence network equipment demand until around 2021.

The three influencers improve what should be a good story for DWDM and ROADM vendors through 2023. The global DWDM market should exceed $12 billion by 2023, with the ROADM market only slightly behind at nearly $11 billion. From a technology perspective, IGI and Holliday see sales of 200- and 400-Gbps DWDM systems eclipsing those of 100-Gbps platforms around 2021-22.

IGI’s “New Drivers of Network and Equipment Market: Cloud Computing, 5G, and Autonomous Vehicles with Analysis and Forecasts, 2018 – 2023” report highlights the effect of cloud computing (including data warehouses and remote data storage), 5G mobile services, and autonomous cars on network requirements and hardware demand. It describes these three catalysts, defines network and equipment terms, and forecasts demand for DWDM and ROADM equipment as well as network switches and routers from 2018 through 2023.

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