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IBM (IBM) Saw Mainframes Fall 42%. Is That Already Priced In at 18 Times Earnings?

IBM (IBM) Saw Mainframes Fall 42%. Is That Already Priced In at 18 Times Earnings?

By Maham Fatima
Publication Date: 2026-10-09 13:29:00

Two halves of the same company just moved in opposite directions. International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) saw its IBM Z mainframe line fall 42% in fiscal Q2 2026, while distributed infrastructure, which covers Power and Storage, jumped 37%. Total revenue rose only 1% to $17.2 billion, and management updated its full-year outlook to 4% to 5% constant-currency growth.

IBM sells software (Red Hat, data tools, automation), consulting, and the infrastructure that runs big companies’ systems. Software is its highest-margin segment, with a 32.2% segment profit margin. Whether the miss is a pothole or a warning depends less on the mainframe number than on what software does next, and on whether 18 times earnings already reflects it.

IBM (IBM) Saw Mainframes Fall 42%. Is That Already Priced In at 18 Times Earnings?

Margins Tell the Story

The moat shows up in the economics rather than the marketing. Software carried an 82.6% gross margin in…

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