By Todd Gordon
Publication Date: 2026-03-10 18:49:00
With Middle East tensions showing signs of easing, crude oil has pulled back sharply as the geopolitical risk premium that was thrust into the market is beginning to fade. Reports from the hot zones are hard to decipher so we find it best to use the smartest leading indicator available — market prices — to help uncover what’s actually happening. In emotional volatile market environments like this, I implore you to ignore those who proclaim an imminent crash. Anybody so certain of anything — except maybe that the markets will be open for trading tomorrow — is acting out of their own self-serving interests to drive fear and gain more attention. Despite the geopolitical tragedies occurring and the barrage of scary headlines crossing the tape when you step back, take a deep breath and look at what’s actually happening, not what you think is happening. It’s been actually a rangebound, somewhat boring market. Case in point: The Invesco QQQ Trust , which follows the Nasdaq 100 , is around the same level as it was on Oct. 8, 2025. Since then we’ve been caught in a 8.5% range after the market rallied 58% from the Q1 2025 lows. Context matters. If you hibernated for the fall and winter and woke up on this beautiful 65-degree sunny day in Saratoga Springs, New York, you would check the charts and think to yourself, “Wow, I didn’t miss a thing.” The QQQ held the lower end of the 8.5% range and the 200-day moving average as accumulation volume is ramping up. Continuing with…
