By Trefis Team
Publication Date: 2026-10-29 11:25:00
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NVIDIA (NVDA) stock trades at 27.0 times earnings. That multiple sits well below the 42.8 average recorded at the end of its last 12 fiscal quarters. Under a Trefis scenario based on NVIDIA’s own figures, the stock would need sales to grow fast enough to offset an even lower multiple in order to jump 50% from its October 28 close of $215.38. So how much could three years of owning the stock make you?
Your Return From Three Years Of Owning NVIDIA
Under that scenario, NVIDIA stock would reach about $334.58 a share three years from now, rising 55.3% above today’s price. That return amounts to about 15.8% a year before dividends. The stock’s projected value relies on a simple calculation: revenue times a net margin yields earnings three years out, and those earnings times a P/E determine the price.
Here is how NVIDIA stands today against the projections for three years out:
| Today | In three years (scenario) | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $303 billion | $666 billion |
| Net margin | 63.7% | 60.0% |
| Earnings | $193 billion | $399 billion |
| P/E | 27.0 | 20.3 |
| Share price | $215.38 | $334.58 |
All of the gain comes from selling more, though a slightly lower margin and a reduced P/E offset a portion of it. The lower P/E serves as an assumption rather than a finding. Trefis scales today’s P/E to account for the scenario’s slower growth against NVIDIA’s latest 83.4%, keeping the multiple at no less than three…