By Alex Sirois
Publication Date: 2026-05-16 12:08:00
Quick Read
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Nvidia (NVDA) reported Q4 FY2026 Data Center revenue of $62.31B, up 75% YoY, with Networking surging 263%, while Q1 FY2027 guidance excludes $12.5B in potential China H200/H20 revenue that could unlock if Trump-Xi trade talks produce an export carve-out.
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Trump’s China summit and dovish Fed Chair signals from Kevin Warsh remove the two largest policy overhangs on Nvidia, while hyperscaler capex commitments from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta remain locked in and insulated from rate policy changes.
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NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) at $235.74 screens attractively under $250. President Trump’s China visit and growing signals that potential Fed Chair candidate Kevin Warsh will take a dovish stance toward AI investment reframe the two biggest overhangs on this stock: export controls and rate policy.
Nvidia sits at the center of the AI buildout. Data Center revenue hit $62.31 billion in Q4 FY2026, up 75% year over year, with Networking up 263% on NVLink fabric demand for GB200 and GB300 systems. The stock has rallied into this policy window, making the entry point critical now.
Why the Policy Window Opens the Trade
The bull case starts with what is excluded from guidance. Nvidia’s Q1 FY2027 revenue outlook of roughly $78.0 billion explicitly assumes zero Data Center compute revenue from China, after a $4.5 billion H20 charge in Q1 FY2026 and roughly $8.0 billion…